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A needed warm and dry stretch will continue for south-central Wisconsin into Thursday, before showers and storms return Thursday night into Friday, with much colder weather to follow, according to forecasters.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue on rivers across southern Wisconsin through mid-week, the National Weather Service said.

The City of Madison Engineering Division reported that Lake Monona has gone down slightly since cresting Saturday, while Lake Mendota is cresting.

Dane County may need to increase the flow out of the Tenney Dam this week to lower Lake Mendota, which would have a minor impact on the water levels on the Yahara River through the isthmus, City Engineering said.

Lake Monona is at 847.58 feet, down 0.07 feet from Sunday, 0.12 feet below the 100-year flood level, and 0.95 feet below the record high of 848.53 feet on Sept. 6, 2018.

Lake Mendota is at 852.09 feet, up 0.01 feet from Sunday, 0.71 feet below the 100-year flood level, and 0.65 feet below the record high of 852.74 feet on June 6, 2000.

In Madison on Tuesday, look for sunny skies, a high near 68 and south winds at 5 to 10 miles per hour, the Weather Service said.

After an overnight low around 46, Wednesday should be sunny, with a high near 69 and south winds at 5 to 10 mph.

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After a low overnight Wednesday into Thursday around 51, Thursday’s forecast features a 20 percent chance for showers after 1 p.m., mostly cloudy skies, a high near 68 and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.

The Weather Service said the chances for showers and storms are 90 percent Thursday night, with possible rain totals of a tenth to a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in any storms that develop; 90 percent Friday, with a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain possible; 40 percent Friday night; and 20 percent Sunday.

Skies over Madison should be mostly cloudy Friday, partly sunny Saturday, mostly cloudy Sunday, and partly sunny Monday, with highs near 64, 46, 45 and 49, and lows Thursday night through Sunday night around 58, 38, 37 and 36.

27 Storm Track meteorologist Max Tsaparis also forecasts sunny and dry weather ending with isolated showers later on Thursday, showers Friday ending by midnight, then much colder weather with highs Saturday and Sunday near 46 and 45, and lows Saturday night and Sunday night around 37 and 36.

Monday’s high in Madison was 66 at 2:44 p.m., 3 degrees above the normal high and 19 degrees below the record high of 85 for Oct. 7, set in 1997 and 2007.

Monday’s low in Madison was 44 at 11:41 p.m., 3 degrees above the normal low and 21 degrees above the record low of 23 for Oct. 7, set in 2001.

No precipitation was recorded at the Dane County Regional Airport on Monday, leaving Madison’s October precipitation total (rain plus snow converted to liquid) at 3.91 inches, 3.36 inches above normal. The meteorological fall (September through November) precipitation total stayed at 10.71 inches, 7.03 inches above normal. The 2019 total stayed at 40.3 inches, 11.8 inches above normal.

Madison’s record precipitation for Oct. 7 is 1.56 inches in 1882.

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