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National Weather Service forecast graphic 9-21-19

“Training” thunderstorms with high rain rates could dump 2 to 3 inches of rain on areas of south-central Wisconsin this weekend, prompting a flash flood watch for Saturday evening to early Monday morning, according to forecasters.

The National Weather Service issues the watch for 7 p.m. Saturday to 1 a.m. Monday for counties that include Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, and Waukesha.

Thunderstorms are expected to move into southwestern Wisconsin on Saturday morning, with chances continuing through the day into the overnight.

An additional round of storms is expected Sunday, with the most widespread storms likely to occur Sunday morning. Heavy rainfall and some flooding are likely during this period, the Weather Service said.

More storms are possible at mid-week next week.

In Madison on Saturday, there’s a 60 percent chance for showers and storms, with the best chances from 11 a.m. through 3 p.m., and possible totals of a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts possible in storms that develop. Look for mostly cloudy skies, a high near 74 and south winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour, gusting to 30 mph.

Overnight, the chance for showers and storms is 100 percent, with a quarter- to half-inch possible as the low falls to around 67.

Sunday’s forecast features a 60 percent chance for showers and storms, with quarter- to half-inch possible, and higher amounts possible in storms that develop. Look for cloudy skies, a high near 71 and southwest winds around 10 mph turning out of the west in the afternoon.

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Overnight Sunday into Monday, the chance for showers and storms is 40 percent before 1 a.m., as the low tumbles to around 54.

The Weather Service said chances for showers and storms return at 20 percent Tuesday night, 40 percent Wednesday, 30 percent Wednesday night, and 20 percent Thursday night.

Skies over Madison should be sunny Monday, partly sunny Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly sunny Thursday, and partly sunny Friday, with highs near 71, 74, 72, 66 and 70, and lows Monday night through Thursday night around 53, 59, 52 and 53.

27 Storm Track meteorologist Guy Brown forecasts periods of scattered showers and thunder showers Saturday, increasing showers and storms Saturday night, scattered light showers and thundershowers Sunday, showers and storms developing Wednesday, a few showers developing overnight Thursday into Friday, and scattered showers and storms Friday.

Friday’s high in Madison was 83 at 3:43 p.m., 13 degrees above the normal high and 8 degrees below the record high of 91 for Sept. 20, set in 2017.

Friday’s low in Madison was 59 at 6:19 a.m., 11 degrees above the normal low and 31 degrees above the record low of 28 for Sept. 20, set in 1956.

No precipitation was recorded at the Dane County Regional Airport on Friday, leaving Madison’s September and meteorological fall (September through November) precipitation total (rain plus snow converted to liquid) at 3.66 inches, 1.5 inches above normal. The 2019 total stayed at 33.25 inches, 6.27 inches above normal.

Madison’s record precipitation for Sept. 20 is 3.34 inches in 1878.

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