Flooding concerns are increasing for south-central Wisconsin as several more rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the next few days, according to forecasters.
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night roughly north of a line from Sheboygan to Spring Green, and a higher marginal risk for severe storms to the south of that line, with strong winds and large hail the main threats, the National Weather Service said.
There could be a round of storms arriving from the west Wednesday morning, then redevelopment in the afternoon and evening.
The rain will be heavy at times and could result in flooding, especially in those areas that received heavy rainfall Monday night into Tuesday. The focus for the heaviest rain appears to be in areas north of Milwaukee and Madison, the Weather Service said.
More storms are expected Thursday into Thursday night, primarily associated with a cold front pushing through. There is a marginal risk for severe storms over mainly south-central Wisconsin, with more heavy rain and flooding possible in areas that see repeated rounds of storms over the next 48 hours.
Rain totals of 2 to 3 inches were seen in parts of southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday, and another 1 to 3 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
More storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.
In Madison on Wednesday, there is a 40 percent chance for showers and storms, mainly after 9 a.m., with cloudy skies, a high near 76 and south winds at 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Overnight, there is a 70 percent chance for showers and storms, with possible totals of a quarter- to half-inch, patchy fog after 3 a.m., and a low around 63.
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Thursday’s forecast features an 80 percent chance for showers and storms, with possible rain totals of a tenth to a quarter of an inch, and higher amounts possible in any storms that may develop. Look for patchy fog before 7 a.m., cloudy skies, a high near 80 and east winds at 5 to 10 mph turning out of the south in the afternoon.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, there’s a 90 percent chance for showers and storms, with possible totals of three-quarters to an inch, gusty winds and a low around 62.
The Weather Service said chances for showers and storms return at 40 percent Saturday night and 20 percent Sunday.
Skies over Madison should be mostly sunny Friday, sunny Saturday, and mostly sunny Sunday through Tuesday, with highs near 70, 76, 80, 81 and 82, and lows Friday night through Monday night around 55, 63, 64 and 65.
27 Storm Track meteorologist Max Tsaparis forecasts scattered showers and storms Wednesday, showers and storms Wednesday night, scattered showers and storms Thursday, showers and storms Thursday night, a few showers possible Saturday night, and isolated showers possible Sunday.
Tuesday’s high in Madison was 81 at 2:30 p.m., 6 degrees above the normal high and 14 degrees below the record high of 95 for Sept. 10, set in 1931.
Tuesday’s low in Madison was 65 at 11:59 p.m., 12 degrees above the normal low and 32 degrees above the record low of 33 for Sept. 10, set in 1967.
Officially, 0.81 inches of precipitation was recorded at the Dane County Regional Airport on Tuesday, boosting Madison’s September and meteorological fall (September through November) precipitation total (rain plus snow converted to liquid) to 1.53 inches, 0.41 inches above normal. The 2019 total rose to 31.12 inches, 5.18 inches above normal.
Madison’s record precipitation for Sept. 10 is 2 inches in 1876.