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A poll released Tuesday showing Mary Burke ahead of Gov. Scott Walker by five points has widened the Democratic challenger's lead in Brad Jones' model of polling for the Wisconsin gubernatorial election.

Gravis Marketing released a poll of 908 registered voters in which Burke got 50 percent to Walker's 45 percent, with 4 percent listed as unsure. The poll was conducted through automated telephone calls.

Jones developed a model to estimate the level of support for the candidates based on polls, and after the Gravis poll was entered it showed Burke getting 51.8 percent of the two-party vote. (See more on the model in last week's Cap Times cover story.)

Jones said the model shows a 70 percent probability that Burke is ahead today, with a 63 percent probability that she will be leading on election day.

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Those figures could change Wednesday, however, when a Marquette University Law School poll is scheduled to be released. Its last poll, conducted Sept. 11-14, showed Walker with a three-point edge among likely voters.

To see the most recent update of the model, go to

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Todd D. Milewski covers Wisconsin Badgers men's hockey and the UW Athletic Department for the Wisconsin State Journal.