A perfect storm fueled by a harsh winter, wet spring and shrinking habitat sent Wisconsin's ring-necked pheasant population plunging like Wall Street's stock values this year, but don't despair.

Some say this 31 percent decline is the bird's version of a market correction, and their numbers remain strong when viewed in historical terms. Estimates for Wisconsin's pheasant population from spring 2003 through spring 2008 were higher than anything recorded from 1982 through 2002.

How that translates into birds in the game bag won't be known until the 74-day pheasant season opens October 18 at noon. Wisconsin's approximately 70,000 pheasant hunters bagged about 350,000 of the colorful cacklers each season from 2005 through 2007. Those seasons produced more success than any of the previous 25, when the annual harvest averaged 265,000.

Scott Hull, upland wildlife ecologist for the Department of Natural Resources, said the agency's surveys detected two roosters per square mile this spring, down from three per square mile in spring 2007. He cited three reasons for the decline:

* Conditions in southern Wisconsin were more severe in winter 2007-08, with many areas receiving more than twice their average amounts of snow.

* Southern Wisconsin also endured a cold, wet spring with widespread flooding. DNR research shows weather during pre-nesting is the largest factor in annual pheasant fluctuations.

* The amount of grassland habitat pheasants prefer is declining as more farmers and landowners opt out of the Conservation Reserve Program to cash in on higher prices for hay, corn, wheat and soybeans.

In fact, although Wisconsin ranks 24th in U.S. wheat production, it's expected to produce 23 million bushels of winter wheat this year, a 22 percent increase that will be our largest harvest in history.

As crops replace wild grasslands, pheasants become more vulnerable to predators and harsh weather. One can hope for milder winters and better nesting conditions, especially because Wisconsin has experienced few severe winters the past 25 years.

The amount of land enrolled in the CRP, however, is expected to keep declining. Hull said Wisconsin had about 700,000 acres enrolled in the CRP in the mid-1990s. When it came time for farmers to extend their agreements recently, however, many left the program.

The state has already seen about 100,000 CRP acres go back into production, and Hull expects Wisconsin to lose an additional 200,000 by 2010. Like it or not, many landowners decided they could make more money by plowing up wildlife habitat and replanting crops. Plus, many of them were tired of the regulations that increasingly accompany CRP contracts.

Bottom line: Wisconsin's CRP lands will fall to about 400,000 acres by 2010, down 43 percent from peak enrollment. Hull said it's difficult to persuade landowners to keep their lands in CRP when crops offer bigger payoffs.

"Congress never intended CRP to compete with commodity prices, but when corn was selling for $2 a bushel, farmers didn't have as many reasons to plant it," Hull said. "With corn now bringing $5 to $7 a bushel, they're finding reasons to plant. Plus, there's more red tape than when the program began in 1985. For some people, CRP isn't worth the costs."

Despite these downturns in CRP lands and ringneck numbers, Hull remains optimistic about Wisconsin's pheasant hunting. The DNR and private clubs have combined to raise and release 100,000 pheasants each of the past three years, and the agency continues to work with CRP recipients and other landowners on state and federal habitat-improvement projects.

"The pheasant program remains strong," Hull said. "We're probably looking at some down years, but commodity prices are cyclical. We saw a similar trend about 15 years ago. When those prices fall again, landowners will have incentives to get back into CRP."

If nothing else, those market forces help assess how much our society values pheasants, as well as insects, songbirds and other wildlife requiring natural habitats. Unfortunately, the CRP dropout rate suggests that value is south of modest.
 
* On a related subject, and as a reminder to readers, Pheasants Forever's fifth annual National Pheasant Fest will be held Feb. 6 to 8, 2009, at the Alliant Energy Center in Madison.

Pheasant Fest (www.pheasantfest.org) attracts the nation's largest gathering of farmers, upland hunters, sport-dog owners and wildlife habitat conservationists. The 2008 Pheasant Fest at St. Paul, Minn., in January attracted nearly 30,000.

Wisconsin is home to 30 Pheasants Forever chapters and more than 7,000 PF members. Since the organization began in 1982 Wisconsin's chapters have completed more than 15,800 habitat projects covering more than 113,000 acres of land.

Pheasant Fest is a national consumer show featuring habitat seminars and family events complete with puppies, tractors, artwork and shotguns. It's open to the public. Attendees do not have to be PF members.